Posted by
Gianluca Carrera on May 4th, 2009
Stocks have been shooting up for 8 weeks in a row so far, and quite a lot. I am asking myself if I am one of the few dulls that staid on the sidelines looking at the beginning of a secular bull market, missing out on bargain prices that we won’t see for decades, or maybe never again. Have I been too risk-adverse? Have I missed something that was so crystal clear to the many smart enough to be long all the way...
Posted by
Gianluca Carrera on Apr 26th, 2009
It seems most of the market participants believe the bottom is in on the equity, with the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq way above the minimum of March after a 7 week (bear) Rally. I am not so convinced and therefore stay almost fully cash waiting for the true bottom to be in. If I am missing the biggest opportunity of a life, then be it. But I strongly doubt.
Have a look at the below charts, courtesy of William Hester of...
Posted by
Gianluca Carrera on Oct 22nd, 2008
Hopefully, the acute phase of the crisis is over. With the EU governments investing around 2trn€in different ways to sustain the credit markets (either through shares purchase, account guarantees etc), it seems that the risk of a systemic collapse of the financial world is now smaller than a few weeks ago. For this reason, markets bounced back 10 or 15% and they are still 5 to 10% higher than the bottoms. You...