Global Recession?

From Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis, a concise representation of the current situation: Global Recession Headed Our Way The world is heading for a global recession and a sure bet is that it will be blamed on a subprime crisis in the US. The reality is the greatest liquidity experiment in history is now crashing to earth. The root cause of this crisis is fractional reserve lending, and micromanagement of...

Length of real estate bear market

There was an interesting table on the FT last Saturday that reported the length and extension of house prices drop (the bear market) in 15 economies since 1970 (mainly Europe, USA + Japan, Korean, New Zealand and Canada). On Average, the bear market has lasted 6+ years, and the prices dropped between 16% (Canada) and 50% (Netherlands). UK had 2 bear markets, lasting only 3 / 4 years each, with prices dropping 26%...

Too early to be optimistic

Wolfgang Munchau explains why the economic recovery might take much longer than anticipated, and why it is too early to be optimistic. All is down to the several crisis that are happening in the same time: property, credit, banking, food and commodities. And they are all happening while saving rates are at historical lows and the fiscal policy is quite constrained. He also points out that usually, property downturns...

Signs of a bubble bursting

I remember back in January a colleague of mine telling this story to a small audience. “Sunday I was in bad with a bit of flu, and here he calls, the agent from XXX, asking me if I wanted to see some property to buy (he showed interest in buying a property weeks before). I tell him I am in bad with flu in my pijama, and he says I not to worry: he would come, drive me to the properties, and drive me back by...

UK house prices set to drop 15% over two years

The FT reporting some pessimistic expectations on UK house prices for the next couple of years. 15% down + 5 / 6% inflation makes it a drop of 20+%. The article is free, and worth reading. FT.