A sustainable bull market?

Stocks have been shooting up for 8 weeks in a row so far, and quite a lot. I am asking myself if I am one of the few dulls that staid on the sidelines looking at the beginning of a secular bull market, missing out on bargain prices that we won’t see for decades, or maybe never again. Have I been too risk-adverse? Have I missed something that was so crystal clear to the many smart enough to be long all the way...

Is the bottom in?

It seems most of the market participants believe the bottom is in on the equity, with the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq way above the minimum of March after a 7 week (bear) Rally. I am not so convinced and therefore stay almost fully cash waiting for the true bottom to be in. If I am missing the biggest opportunity of a life, then be it. But I strongly doubt. Have a look at the below charts, courtesy of William Hester of...

S&P starts with an 8

839.80 S&P touched 839 today, time to cash in the second pizza. Time to go long the market? I doubt… It’s better and safer to let the dust clear, even if this means potentially missing a 20% or plus upside. The situation is so dire, that you don’t really know what’s next. Also, from an economic standpoint, the worst is still to come. We might see lower levels in the months to come. 750...

Lehman and Merrill

OK – this is old now. I wrote it early this morning, and the world changed egain, but hey! Why should I not post it? ____________________________________________________________________________________ At the end, it did happen. A “major” financial institution has gone bust. So the FED has sort of “saved the face” with regard to Moral Hazard. Merrill would have probably been next...