A place to think
Posted by Gianluca Carrera on Apr 26th, 2009
Is the bottom in?
It seems most of the market participants believe the bottom is in on the equity, with the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq way above the minimum of March after a 7 week (bear) Rally. I am not so convinced and therefore stay almost fully cash waiting for the true bottom to be in. If I am missing the biggest opportunity of a life, then be it. But I strongly doubt. Have a look at the below charts, courtesy of William Hester of...
Posted by Gianluca Carrera on Oct 8th, 2008
S&P below 1,000
Just a quick update on the bet I made with a friend of mine I hinted to a few blogs ago. I was giving the S&P 12 months to touch 1,000 (at the time I made the bet, the S&P was trading around 1,300), and it just touched it yesterday, closing at 996. I’ll collect my pizza when my friend comes back from the red sea. He works in finance, but every time there is something interesting going on, he is missing...
Posted by Gianluca Carrera on Sep 30th, 2008
Meltdown Monday
It was another black Monday for Wall Street after the Congress hasn’t passed the mother of all bailouts. I will skip the details, as the whole press world is doing already a very good job at covering what’s happening. Just one quick point. The Dow closed at the very bottom, lacking the support of the short sellers that (guess what?) would have been around to cover the short positions mitigating a very...
Posted by Gianluca Carrera on Sep 29th, 2008
The big rush for cash
A recent Citi estimation talks of 600bn$ of cash being hoarded up by hedge funds. Not a surprise. The fly to safe lands (cash) coupled with deleveraging was already happening, and it looks like it is assuming epic dimension right now. Not a suprise, considering the following gib question marks: the 700bn$ bailout is facing challenges. On top of this, we don’t even know how much effective it will be. Noy much...
Posted by Gianluca Carrera on Sep 23rd, 2008
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