Archive for October, 2008
What next?
You cannot rule out a big one-day market crash like the 25% fall in 1987. With all that the central banks and the governments are doing, markets are in free fall, down 20%+ in the week, and everybody is panicking. It just takes very little to break the whole system into a one day big-meltdown. [...]
S&P starts with an 8
839.80
S&P touched 839 today, time to cash in the second pizza. Time to go long the market? I doubt… It’s better and safer to let the dust clear, even if this means potentially missing a 20% or plus upside. The situation is so dire, that you don’t really know what’s next. Also, from an economic [...]
Global Recession?
From Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis, a concise representation of the current situation:
Global Recession Headed Our Way
The world is heading for a global recession and a sure bet is that it will be blamed on a subprime crisis in the US. The reality is the greatest liquidity experiment in history is now crashing to earth.
The [...]
Bank of America 10bn$ capital raise
How on earth a bank that spends 50bn$ to buy Merrill Lynch would after a month need to raise 10bn$ at a discount of some 20/30% versus market price, diluting existing shareholders, in a market that is extremely tight on cash? It seems to me that some people might not have understood how serious the [...]
UK house prices down 1.2% in September
According to the Halifax index, UK house prices have been down 1.2% in September, with an annualized decline of 12.4% in the last quarter. It looks a given that house prices in UK have come down at least 10% from the peak, the question is where will they stop?
I think the earnings ratio might give [...]