Recession probabilities for the US
Ok I admit it, I am passionate about the economy too, not only about the internet. So I cannot stop posting about it and, these days, more frequently than about the internet. There is a lot going on in the internet, especially with the recent Yahoo-Microsoft story. But I cannot and don’t want to comment about “my” company.
The problem is, there is probably much more going on in the economy nowadays, and these are probably the most interesting times of the last 20 years. I make no secret that I am bearish on the economy of the developed countries, especially US. More positive about the emerging markets. I am a believer in the decoupling, although it might not be perfectly realized, yet.
Today I wanted to just post a chart of a model that predicts US recession. I discovered it on “the big picture“, an interesting blog about economics.
Jeremy Piger is an associate professor at Oregon university, and he knows a thing or two about Macroeconomics and Econometrics. He has developed a model to forecast US recessions, and the output is presented in the picture at the top of the blog. If you cross reference it with the Wikipedia record of US recessions, it seems to match quite well (although some might question the size of the sample).
Just thought to share it.
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